the 2018 choices isn't as crazy as it sounds — we're already more than a third of the way through the 12-month eligibility period for next year's Grammys, and if the pattern of prior years continues, many of next year's eventual winners have already been released. Using our knowledge of what's out there right now and what's expected to come in the next seven months, let's try to forecast how the four major Grammys categories will shake out next year.
(There's one thing we have to get out of the way first, though: Adele. A lot of people are expecting her to release her third album this year; if she does, she's going to win all the Grammys. However, the most recent reports say the album's not coming out until the end of 2016. Let's assume those reports are true to open up some room for everyone else, but in the same spirit of fairness, we'll say that Adele releases her comeback single sometime this summer. Got all that? Here we go!).
Best New Artist
Ella Henderson
Sam Hunt
Nick Jonas
Rae Sremmurd
Charlie XCX
Win: Ella Henderson.
Henderson is the favorite right now; she's a soulful, X-Factor–bred British woman, and "Ghost" seems like it will be a hit. Charli is a nominee this year for "Fancy," but, as with Ed Sheeran, the Grammys love to nominate someone for Best New Artist a year after they should. Nick Jonas fills the "How the heck are they new?" spot, and Hunt is the requisite country artist. In all likelihood, we're missing this year's Lorde — a youngster who comes out of nowhere with a dark horse Song of Summer contender — but until that person makes themselves known, we're giving their slot to Rae Sremmurd, who have an approximately 0.00001 percent chance of actually being nominated in real life.
Song of the Year
Adele, "Single TBA"
Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars, "Uptown Funk"
Taylor Swift, "Blank Space"
Meghan Trainor, "Lips Are Movin'"
Rihanna, Kanye West, and Paul McCartney, "FourFiveSeconds"
Win: Adele.
As anyone who's watched their musical numbers knows, the Grammys love unexpected pairings, and the songwriting partnership of Paul McCartney and Kanye West is the most beautifully unorthodox pairing of stars we've seen in a while; whichever of their songs charts highest will get a nomination. "Uptown Funk" looks like it's on the way to being one of the year's biggest hits, so it scores a courtesy nom here. Trainor is a success story for songwriters everywhere, and "Lips Are Movin'" is a better song than "All About That Bass," which is nominated this year. The eventual Song of Summer will likely earn a nod here; appropriately, we're filling that blank space with Starbucks lovers. And absolutely none of this will matter if Adele drops a single before September 30.
Record of the Year
Adele, "Single TBA"
Bruno Mars, "Single TBA"
Rihanna, "Single TBA"
Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars, "Uptown Funk"
Taylor Swift, "Blank Space"
Win: Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars.
Bruno Mars and Mark Ronson can probably start writing their acceptance speeches for this one right now — it's unlikely anything else this year could press Grammy voters' buttons as precisely as "Uptown Funk" does. Ironically, the only thing that could maybe dethrone it would be a solo single from Mars himself, who is expected to release his third album some time this year. Elsewhere, the airiness of "Blank Space" gives it a slightly better chance here than in Song of the Year, and while "FourFiveSeconds" is probably too raw to get a nomination, we assume one of Rihanna's later singles will be more polished. And the last spot goes to Adele by default.
Album of the Year
D'Angelo, Black Messiah
Bob Dylan, Shadows in the Night
Mark Ronson, Uptown Special
Taylor Swift, 1989
Kanye West, TBA
Win: Taylor Swift.
Just to keep things interesting, let's stick with the assumption that Adele's album doesn't come out before the September 30 deadline. Who gets this Grammy instead? Of the music that's already out, 1989 is the easiest to pencil in, and Uptown Special's throwback appeal should be enough to earn it a nod. Black Messiah and Shadows in the Night might be unconventional choices, but each has a narrative — D'Angelo is back! Dylan covers Sinatra! — that could prove irresistible to voters. For the albums that haven't come out yet, we're going with Kanye West, whose 2016 output has been as warm and accessible as Yeezus wasn't. Of the five, we're betting on 1989, a win that would make up for the quasi-snub of Red and be fitting recognition for one of the music industry's few remaining blockbusters.